State-by-state analysis

What follows here is a highly-subjective state-by-state rundown of the 2004 presidential election results based off information in CNN exit polling results. It is by no means a terribly scientific analysis on my part, nor is it highly comprehensive, just a call-it-as-I-see-it-view which compares such factors as economics, party affiliation, race, demographics, and religion to come up with general picture of a given states electoral prospects. Pro-Democratic factors are listed in blue. Pro-Republican factors are listed in red. Religion listings concentrate primarily on Catholic and Protestant factors unless another factor needs to be mentioned. In virtually every state, a significant number of "other/none" exist in the religion category. Generally, I don't mention these, not because they have no effect on a given contest but because, unlike Catholics and Protestants, these groups almost invariably supported Kerry fairly heavily, hence they can - and should - be assumed to exist in each state and be assumed as a pro-Kerry constituency. Party listings concentrate on several factors. 1) Partisanship. This is how many people identify with both political parties, not with the political balance in a state. High partisanship means fewer independents. Low partisanship means many people identifying as independents. 2) Margin. This is the percentage advantage that one party has on the other in a given state. 3) Loyalty. This is how likely a given party's members are to actually support their candidate - or to defect to the other side. One more note should be added. Since these are exit polling results, they may differ from actual voting results. Only the margin of victory at the top is the actual election result. The rest is CNN exit polling.

Choose your state

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas

North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet