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look at where they are located. The following maps I made show Catholic and
Protestant voters as a percentage of total voters, according to information from
CNN exit polls. White indicates less than 10%. The darkest greens indicate
more than 70%. Color gradations are at 10% intervals.
with every state boasting a significant population, however the heaviest
concentrations are in the Deep South but they are almost as strong in the
Great Plains and Midwest. The lightest populations are in Lower New
England, the only area where some states actually see Catholics
outnumbering Protestants. The map of Catholic America shows a similar
story in reverse though with lighter populations nationwide. Six states have
less than ten percent Catholics on the CNN exit poll. Four of these are in the
South. Nationally, Protestants make up about 54% of the electorate versus
about 27% who are Catholics.
no religion at all. It was just impractical to make a map for them due to the
structuring of the poll and the small populations involved. Suffice it to say that
taken together these groups represent about one-fifth of the electorate and
they voted overwhelmingly for John Kerry, usually by margins of 2 or 3 to 1.
Now back to the Catholics and Protestants. How did they vote? Light pink
areas indicate a narrow Bush win. Magenta areas indicate a win by six or
more points. Red areas show a victory of 14 points or better. While the dark
red indicates landslide victories of 24 or more points. Blue areas denote Kerry
wins and have a similar scale of gradation. White areas denote too small a
sample size to get an accurate reading.
blood-red map certainly tells the tale. Light shades of blue are confined to a
few strongholds in the Northeast. In Protestant America, Kerry won absolutely
nothing west of the Appalachian Mountains and damned little east of them.
While the losses in the Upper Midwest aren't as horrific, a visit to the South or
the Rockies shows a nation turning positively scarlet. In many of these areas,
even the darkest red I could find doesn't fully represent the carnage. Kerry lost
the Protestants in a few of these states not by a mere 30 points but
occasionally by upwards of 40 or even 50.
Okay, the Protestant map is depressing but not particularly surprising. Now
let's turn to our Catholic friends.
significantly smaller margin, roughly 52-47. But sizable bases of strength can
be seen for the Democrats in the Upper Midwest and especially the West
Coast. While this map looks a bit more like the familiar red and blue map
burned into all our minds, it has some interesting differences. For one thing,
what on Earth is going on in the Northeast? Kerry actually lost the Catholic
populations in many of these states despite winning the Protestants, even
though the Protestants were much less friendly to him nationwide and this
area was supposed to be his base of strength.
Kerry lost New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware and New
Hampshire on the Catholic map. Oddly, however the map is almost an exact
mirror image in that area. Excepting New Hampshire, these are precisely the
states Kerry WON the Protestant vote in. In fact, they are almost the only states,
he won it in. It seems strange but in the few states where Kerry did well among
the Protestants, he failed utterly to attract the Catholics. In areas where he
attracted Catholics, he failed to get the Protestant vote. In fact the only state to
give him both groups was Massachusetts. Even there the margin was telling.
While carrying the Protestants by 21 points, he barely squeaked by in the
Catholic vote by a mere two points. Kerry almost lost the Massachusetts
Catholic vote. Ironic given that he is a Massachusetts Catholic.
Hence, while Kerry won key states New York, New Jersey, Connecticut,
California, Illinois and Pennsylvania its interesting to note that he won New
York, New Jersey and Connecticut on the strength of liberal Protestants
subduing conservative Catholics, while he won California, Illinois and
Pennsylvania on the backs of liberal Catholics outvoting conservative
Protestants. Kerry may have won the Northeast where the heaviest
concentrations of Catholics are but in many instances he did it in spite of, not
because of those Catholics. By contrast, Catholics in the Upper Midwest and
West Coast were key to his wins there.
This would seem to indicate that Catholics in the Northeast are often more
conservative, sometimes radically more conservative, than their counterparts
in other Kerry-voting areas. In fact, in some instances, they are more to the
right than Catholics in Bush voting areas. Kerry scored slightly worse among
Catholics in liberal New York than he did in Bush's homestate of Texas. In
solidly Democratic New Jersey, Catholics voted for Bush by a larger
percentage than they did in dead red states like Montana, Indiana and even
Wyoming a state whose general population gave Bush a bigger margin than
any other in the Union except Utah!
retaining the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania though Protestants in these
areas, while unfriendly, are not as actively hostile as in the South and West.
The strange Catholic dichotomy in the Northeast is fascinating though
probably not that vital to the interests of the Democratic Party due to solid
majorities there among Protestants.
In any event, the party should make clear that its agenda is not hostile to
religion as it is often portrayed as being by GOP strategists. Maintaining a
strong belief in the separation of church and state is important and should be
presented not as animus toward religion but as a vital protection for people of
all faiths against government intrusion into personal spheres of life.
That said, overzealous interpretations of that principal should also be seen
as violations of it. Misguided teachers who stop a child from voluntarily
praying are equally guilty as those who would encourage or enforce such a
prayer. A more moderate and common sense approach to separation issues
would go a long way to deflating disingenuous Republican attacks on liberals
and Democrats as "anti-religious." Some obvious Judge Roy Moore-style
antics by right-wing zealots, recent moves to teach "intelligent design" and
introduce official school prayer are clear violations of the separation and
should be fought, but not every manger scene on public property is a cause
for an ACLU red alert, nor is every lawsuit-filing parent an automatic ally.
Letting common sense rule the day is the appropriate course. The
Democrats should make it clear that they stand for a separation of church
and state that promotes freedom of, not freedom from, religion. If they don't
then Republicans will continue to rule the debate and the maps above will get
redder still.