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Conservatives
forward ideologically. How does the party redefine itself for future elections?
The question is an important one and its answerers tend to fall into one of
two camps. Centrists believe that the answer lies in an adjustment towards
the middle, that is they believe that he who holds the center wins the election.
Leftists lay claim to the opposite theory. Moving left is the key to success, they
say. Many theorize that moving to the center is a form of retreat that only
relocates the playing field further rightward and ensures eventual Republican
dominance of the debate. Present a hard left alternative and people will move
that way, they say. It is simply a matter of rehabilitating the word "liberal" in the
public mind and of stressing its proud traditions in contrast to the hit jobs
perpetrated on it by the right.
I believe the left is correct about rehabilitating the word "liberal." It has been
much maligned and has had its meaning utterly distorted by the "hate radio"
microphone jockeys on the right. No doubt a redefinition effort and an ability to
control the debate is essential.
But are they right about the second part? Does the party win by moving left?
Here's a map that answers that question better than I can in mere words.
are dominant versus where conservatives hold sway. Blue ares denote states
where more people identified as "liberal" when asked then as "conservative."
Red areas show states where the opposite is true. Before one looks at this
and panics, it should be made clear that moderates are not included in this
graphic. And they are the predominant group in most states. Nationwide,
moderates make up 45% of the populace versus 34% conservative and 21%
liberal. Conservatives do not control the game no matter how much they may
appear to or how much they brag to that effect. In reality, conservatives only
compose about one-third of the population. They can - and have - been
beaten in the past. They can - and will be beaten again.
That said however, the map above does certainly not support the liberal
theory of running left either. The left holds a edge over the right only in Hawaii,
Washington, D.C. and a smattering of New England states. Even states Kerry
won in the Upper Midwest and the West Coast have more people identifying
as conservatives than as liberals. This is true generally in every battleground
state.
Oregon 7-point advantage for conservatives
Pennsylvania 8-point advantage for conservatives
New Hampshire 9-point advantage for conservatives
Michigan 12-point advantage for conservatives
New Mexico 14-point advantage for conservatives
Florida 14-point advantage for conservatives
Ohio 15-point advantage for conservatives
Nevada 16-point advantage for conservatives
Iowa 17-point advantage for conservatives
state. Those in green show where moderates do. A couple of things should
be noted - one hopeful, the other not. The unhappy item is that nowhere
outside Washington, D.C. is anything on this map blue. In no state do liberals
represent a plurality, outnumbering both their conservative and moderate
cousins.
The good news? In only five states do conservatives represent a plurality. In
forty-five others moderates hold the controlling interest, even in many dead
red states.
Obviously, this map lies a bit. Undoubtedly, there are many "moderates" who
are essentially conservative in their beliefs, just as there are many
"independents" who are essentially Republican in their voting patterns. The
same can, of course, be said of Democratic-leaning independents and
liberal-leaning moderates.
I also don't mean to imply that all of those forty-five states are such bastions of
centrist thought that we can win them easily if we just try. I am not so
optimistic as to believe Wyoming and Nebraska will fall into the Democratic
column with but a little massaging.
The map does however prove the point that while America is not blue, it is
also not as red as it may at first glance seem.
No matter what the conservatives say, it was Kerry's failure to convince the
middle that cost him the election. He won them by only a point, not enough to
form the great center-left coalition that would easily have driven George W.
Bush back to Crawford, Texas for a long retirement.
1) The American public is strongly centrist.
2) Running left is not a coherent strategy for Democratic success as
four-fifths of the American public do not feel that the term "liberal" describes
them. Running right for Republicans doesn't work well either as two-thirds of
the American public do not feel that the term "conservative" describes them.
3) The concept of liberalism must be rehabilitated in the public mind in order
to give it parity with conservativism. However, even if this occurs, the middle
must not be alienated from the Democratic Party. Running too far to either
extreme is a losing proposition for the party that does it.
4) A coalition of moderates and liberals is an unbeatable combination
against the conservative voting bloc.