Virginia
13 votes
Bush - 8 points
The last time this state voted Democratic...
...'Gilligan's Island' premiered on television.
Race
- Heavily white
- Sizable African-American population
Sixty-eight percent of the white vote went for Bush. Eighty-seven
percent of the black vote went for Kerry. Similar numbers can be
seen in every Southern state.
Age
Youth - Kerry
Everybody else - Bush
Kerry won a majority of the under 30 vote but the rest was Bush's
for the taking.
Economics
Under $30,000 - Kerry
Above $30,000 - Bush
A textbook pattern here. Kerry wins the poor and working class,
only to see the margin swing to Bush in the lower middle class.
Except for a slight deviation in the highest bracket, the richer you
were, the more Republican you voted.
Politics
- Average partisanship
- Slight Republican tilt
- Average Democratic loyalty
- Excellent Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Republican
At only four points, the Republican advantage here is small and
Democratic loyalty isn't bad. But GOP loyalty is better. The final
nail in the coffin is the independents. They voted for Bush by ten.
Ideology
- Heavy conservative tilt
A 21-point conservative tilt. Not unusual for the South. This state
is a bit closer than most however since the moderates actually
support Kerry. Loyalty numbers are roughly the same on both
sides.
Religion
- Heavily Protestant
- Significant Catholic population
Bush won both groups. The Catholics he won by a bigger margin
than the Protestants.
Demographics
- Predominantly suburban
- Large urban population
- Sizable rural population
Kerry received lukewarm urban support here winning with 51%
of the vote, much less than his nationwide urban numbers. But
other than that Virginia voted about like the rest of the country.
Kerry lost the suburbs by seven and the rural areas by 24.
Other factors
Only 51% of Virginians approve of the war but the disapproval
number is pretty low at 43%. Fifty-five percent approve of Bush.


The Land of the Blue
Where centrism and progressivism meet