Vermont

3 votes

Kerry - 20 points

The last time this state voted Republican...

...'Who Framed Roger Rabbit?' was big at the box office.

Race

- Overwhelmingly white

Nothing to report here.

Age

Seniors - Bush Under 60 - Kerry

Vermont's seniors were spilt almost even. Every other group supported Kerry easily with the youth leading the charge.

Economics

All groups - Kerry

Not much to report here.

Politics

- Very low partisanship - Slight Democratic tilt - Above average Democratic loyalty - Average Republican loyalty - Independents tilt heavily Democratic

At only four points, the Democratic advantage here is small, much smaller in fact than states like Arkansas and West Virginia where Democrats lost easily. But that didn't happen in Vermont. This state tied with Massachusetts for the third most loyal Democratic Party members in the nation, behind only New Hampshire and Washington, D.C. It was one of a few states where Democratic loyalty actually outpaced Republican loyalty. But the big secret to Vermont's success is most of its independents are closet Democrats. More than 2/3 voted for Kerry. Thus despite very low partisanship - 44% of Vermonters are independents - the GOP could not capitalize.

Ideology

- Significant liberal tilt

One of very few states with a liberal tilt - and a good one at seven points. Thirty-two percent of Vermont voters are liberal, 11 points higher than the national average. They also have a better loyalty rate than conservatives and 60% of the moderates supported Kerry to boot.

Religion

- Predominantly Protestant - Large Catholic population

For the record Bush won the Protestant vote but only by a scant three points. This small margin was further weakened by the fact that like many northeastern states Vermont has fewer Protestants then most areas. Only 37% of the state is Protestant. The large Catholic population lightly supported Kerry.

Demographics

- Heavily rural - Large suburban population

Urban areas essentially don't exist in Vermont. Kerry won the suburbs but only by about six points. His main strength oddly was in the rural areas where he won 62% of the vote. This was one of only six states in which he won the rural vote and it was the furthest west state in which he managed the feat - excepting Hawaii.

Other factors

Bush and the war are both not popular here. Both have disapproval rates in the upper fifties. In fact 46% of voters "strongly" disapproved of him.

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet