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- Significant African-American population
blacks voted for Kerry.
Everyone else - Bush
among the poor and working class voters and the tide swinging
to Bush in the lower middle class and becoming increasingly
heavy up the scale. Between $100,000 - $150,000 Bush wins by
almost 3-1. But in the highest brackets Bush shows a dramatic
fall off. Above $200,000, Kerry actually retakes the lead. This is a
very weird pattern, especially for the south. I've seen it repeated
almost nowhere. The only thing even similar is in Maine and
even that's not really close.
- Significant Republican tilt
- Average Democratic loyalty
- Excellent Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Republican
excellent Republican loyalty, this state might be almost
competitive. Dems have about 90% loyalty - about average. But
the independents put the race out of reach. Fifty-seven percent of
them voted for Bush.
among a handful of states where conservatives outnumber every
other group. Mississippi, Alabama, Texas and Utah are the
others. Oddly, the moderates did vote for Kerry by a healthy 19
points - a bit strange in a state where independents voted for
Bush. Must be that many people here like to identify as
conservatives more than as Republicans. But anyway, despite
the moderate support, the conservative advantage is just too
great and their party loyalty is better than liberals.
- Small Catholic population
could be worse) margin. More surprisingly, Tennessee's small
Catholic population supported Bush by only five points - in
contrast to other Southern states where both denominations
pounded him. Among the ex-Confederate states, only Texas's
Catholics showed more mercy to Kerry than Tennessee's.
- Sizable rural population
- Sizable suburban population
match for the unity of the rural and suburban votes which form a
majority of the state. There was no significant difference between
small towns and outlying areas.