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- Significant African-American population
open for African-Americans and a tiny Latino community to swing
the election to the Democrats.
30-44 and 60+ - narrowly Bush
45-59 - tied
Oregon but with less support from 40- and 50-somethings.
Here's one state where counting on the youth vote actually
worked. It was youngest fifth of the population that provided the
margin for Kerry.
Lower/central middle class/richest voters - Bush
Oregon. Kerry polls 60% in the lower classes only to find his
margin reverse very narrowly to Bush in the lower middle class.
Nothing strange there. What is odd is reversal back to Kerry in
the upper middle class though again narrowly. The advantage
persists up to about $150,000, then reverses dramatically in
favor of Bush with heavy GOP margins in the highest brackets.
- Slight Democratic tilt
- Poor Democratic loyalty
- Below average Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Democratic
unimpressive 85% loyalty rate among Democratic faithful.
Though the 89% boasted by the GOP is hardly much to write
home about either. Given the even numbers and lack of solid
support from either base, its the independents that bring it home
for the Democrats. They only represent a fifth of the population but
58% of them voted for Kerry.
13-point edge they have nationally but it still makes the
Democrats sing for their supper. Not much advantage on party
loyalty either way. Again, it's the middle that owns Pennsylvania.
The moderates chose Kerry by 14 points.
- Large Catholic population
almost even with a slight partiality for Kerry. Thus it was mainly
the non-aligned groups that provided Kerry's margin.
- Significant urban population
- Significant rural population
well-manicured lawn crowd did opt for Bush. But only by five
points. The rest of the state is divided almost equally between
the rural and urban areas. In outlying areas, Bush's margin was
massive but overall his rural advantage was weakened by poor
performances in small town Pennsylvania where Kerry actually
captured 52% of the vote. A similar pattern is seen in Iowa and
especially Georgia. Meanwhile the urbanites, though less than a
fifth of the population, spoke loudly. Kerry earned nearly
four-fifths of the urban vote, led by a crushing margin from the
Democratic mecca of Philadelphia. The city's suburbs provided
smaller margins along with Pittsburgh and the northeastern part
of Pennsylvania and it was enough to outvote the Bush base in
the center of the state. The outlying areas supported him but it
may have been his lackluster showing in small towns that
diluted his rural margin and killed his chances here.
Both represent pluralities. But he lost Pennsylvania anyway.