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split you are used to seeing. But there are some notable differences. Take a
minute and check it out. Go on. I'll wait.
West Virginia and Louisiana blue? And why are Oregon and New Hampshire
red? These are obviously not election results. What you are looking at is a
map I made representing party affiliation, based on CNN exit polling data.
Voters were asked whether they were Democrats, Republicans or
independents. The major parties were even with 37% on either side. The
remaining 26% identified as independents. The map above shows how
heavily tilted each party's support is in each state. Excepting tiny Washington,
D.C., which is barely visible here, the heaviest blue shade representing a 24
point or greater advantage, is totally absent. A few states such as New York
and Massachusetts have the second heaviest shade at 14-23 points. Then
the next lighter is 6-13 and the sky blue shows 5 or less points. A similar
scale highlights the "redness" of Republican areas.
So it begs the question: Why didn't the election turn out like this? Three things
basically affect this question.
- Party margin
- Party loyalty
- The independents
Party margin is represented by the map above. It shows the advantage of one
party over another based on the party's sheer numbers in a given state.
Now let's move on to party loyalty.
confused with party strength which is shown in the map up above. It is party
loyalty. This is how many Republicans in a given state actually voted for
Bush. Bush may still lose the state even if party loyalty was high, assuming
the Republicans were simply outnumbered. The map below tells us only how
well the Republicans stuck together and how well they rallied behind their
candidate, not whether they won or could outvote their opponents. For
instance in California, Republican Party loyalty was slightly higher then
Democratic Party loyalty. The Democrats still won because the Democratic
Party margin was too high and the independents voted with the Democrats.
the darkest green show loyalty of 97% or better. As for most of the rest of the
country, GOPers have a pretty good rate there as well. Ninety-three percent or
better in fact. Only a few states dip into the upper-80s. Excepting
Washington, D.C. which has a 75% loyalty rate among Republicans (even
they voted for Democrats there), there are no major problems with
disaffection on this map. The lowest GOP loyalty rate is in Maine with 85%.
Overall, 93% of Republicans stayed with their party. Lighter shades of green
aren't even seen on this map.
Now that we've seen the 37% of Americans who call themselves
Republican, let's check out the 37% who call themselves Democrats. How
do they stack up?
difference is, shall we say, marked. The darkest green isn't even on this
map, excepting tiny, invisible D.C., where 97% of Democrats voted Kerry.
The highest loyalty in an actual state for the Democrats was New
Hampshire at 95%, significantly lower the top Republican performance in
Alabama where 99% of Republicans voted for George W.
Meanwhile, awful defection rates mar the Rocky Mountain states, where
there aren't even that many Democrats to begin with. New Mexico at 84%,
South Dakota at 81%, Idaho at 80%, North Dakota at 79%, Montana at 78%,
Wyoming at 73%. From there the numbers descend into the utterly comical.
The three states shown in white, Kentucky, West Virginia and Oklahoma had
horrific defection rates. In Kentucky, almost 3-in-10 Democrats didn't vote for
Kerry. The loyalty rate was only 69% in West Virginia and it dipped to 68% in
Oklahoma. That means nearly a third of all Democrats there couldn't bring
themselves to vote for John Kerry.
Bear in mind, this is not a measure of party strength. These are people who
say "I am a Democrat." when asked by a pollster what their political
persuasion is. And yet, excepting again Washington D.C., the lowest
Republican loyalty rate in any state was 85%. Democrats in an astounding
17 states surpassed that low-water mark. In four others, they tied it.
Democratic loyalty nationwide was 89%. A figure matched by the
Republicans in only five state and surpassed in only four more, including
D.C.
So where did this make a difference. A lot of places. But we'll get back to that
in a moment. Now let's look at the independents. How did they vote?
independent vote nationwide by a scant one point, however its clear from
this map that his failure to win didn't come from his failure to win indies
where it counted. They broke heavily for him in the key states of
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oregon and Florida and he got lesser support in New
Mexico, Nevada and every Upper Midwest state except Iowa. Meanwhile
indies in unlikely places like Arizona, Colorado and Nebraska voted for him.
Meanwhile, indies supporting Bush were confined, with only a couple of
exceptions, mainly to his base, primarily in the South.
This brings up an interesting point. Although technically "independent" most
independents don't vote that way. Take Vermont, for instance, where
Democrats have only a slight four percent advantage on margin over the
GOP. Meanwhile independents easily outnumber both parties at a
whopping 41%. On paper Vermont is very competitive. In reality, Kerry won it
by twenty points. There are a lot of undeclared Democrats in Vermont.
Arkansas presents a similar situation for the Republicans. The Democrats
have a nine-point advantage in the state. Yet, they barely waged a campaign
there. It wasn't even competitive. Why? Part of it was the humiliating
defection rate among Democrats. Yet equally important was the nearly
three-in-ten Arkansans who claim to be independent. However once in the
voting booth, they picked Bush by 22 points. Generally speaking most
so-called independents are closet partisan who simply don't claim
membership in a party. In more liberal states independents usually vote
Democratic. In more conservative states they tend to vote Republican
(though there are some notable exceptions to this second part.
But the really frustrating part is when you have both a partisan advantage
and the independents choose you - yet you still lose. That's what happened
to Kerry in New Mexico where his party enjoyed a seven point margin over
the GOP and won the indies by another seven to boot. Yet they lost narrowly.
How do you manage to mess up a free lunch that good? Look no further
than that defection rate I talked about earlier. While only about 6% of
Republicans jumped ship from Bush, the Democrats saw 16% of their own
party abandon them. Their advantage dried up.
A similar problem afflicted the aforementioned Arkansas but neither of these
losses was the most egregious example of the scourge of Democratic
disloyalty. That would have to be West Virginia. At 18 points, West Virginia is
tied with Maryland for the third-highest margin of Democrats to Republicans
for any state in the Union (again excepting D.C.) Even such liberal Meccas
as New York, Vermont, California and Illinois can't match it. Fully half of West
Virginians call themselves Democrats.
It was all for naught. West Virginia had the second-highest party defection
rate in the nation. And the indies put the final nail in Kerry's coffin with a
fourteen point margin for Bush.
disaster from hell. The party actually does reasonably well among
independents even with uninspiring candidates like Kerry. But they must
shore up the more conservative elements in their own party. These people
are calling themselves Democrats for a reason. They want the party to
represent them and - at present - they don't feel it does. The populist
economic messages of Bill Clinton provide an instructive lesson here. The
party should stay with what works. They haven't so far.
Of the twelve states where Democrats enjoyed the widest margins of
advantage over the Republicans, the GOP won three of them, two of them
easily. Of the 23 states where exit polls showed any advantage for
Democrats, Bush won five of them.
Of the top twelve states for Republican margins, the Democrats won none.
In fact, while Kerry was fighting - and losing - the battle for two of our top ten,
none of their top 19 were even close! Of the 30 states with ANY Republican
advantage, we stole only three and only one of those by more than a
razor-thin margin.
One of those states is instructive however. New Hampshire had a
seven-point Republican advantage. Yet at 95% it had the best Democratic
loyalty outside D.C., even edging out the Republicans at 90%. That
deficiency would cost them. When the independent vote came rolling in at
14 points for Kerry, the GOP had suffered a narrow defeat. It can be done
with the right message and the right ideas. Progressive centrism is the key
to bringing back the moderate Democrats who still hold the party name but
reject its candidates.