Oklahoma

7 votes

Bush - 32 points

The last time this state voted Democratic...

... Keanu Reeves was born.

Race

- Heavily white - Small African-American population - Small population listed as 'other' - Very small Latino population

Unsurprisingly, Bush got 71% of the white vote. More surprisingly, he won every other significant minority group except African-Americans. Even there he fared better than usual, winning 28% of the black vote.

Age

All groups - Bush

No significant differences among age groups.

Economics

Poorest voters - Kerry Everybody else - heavily Bush

Unlike its neighbors to the north Kansas and Nebraska, where economics were a moot point, Oklahoma's poor did actually support Kerry. But its working class backed Bush by 14 points. From there the rest of the economic scale was a blood red massacre with margins of 2 or 3 to 1 in favor of the GOP. Reminds one a bit of Montana.

Politics

- High partisanship - Slight Republican tilt - Horrifically awful Democratic loyalty - Excellent Republican loyalty - Independents tilt heavily Republican

If you've read many of these state analyses you've probably heard me talk about the problems inherent in Democratic party loyalty. Democrats are far less cohesive than Republicans. But have you ever wondered where Democratic loyalty is worst? In what state are Democrats most like to jump ship from their own party. Well, you've found it. In a barrel of bad apples, this one is the rottenest. According to exit polls, in no state in the union did any party have worse loyalty than Oklahoma Democrats. Incredibly, nearly one of every three Democrats defected to George W. Bush. This actually goes a long way to explaining Oklahoma, where the party margin only favors Republicans by a scant three-points. Democrats overcame a margin more than twice that size in New Hampshire. But Oklahoma isn't New Hampshire. Further, not only is the state the poster child for Democratic fractiousness. But its independents are anything but independent. They voted for Bush by a 2-1 margin. Clearly, Oklahoma has a lot of unregistered Republicans. Ironically, of those that are registered many are Democrats.

Ideology

- Massive conservative tilt

Conservatives are so dominant here, they almost outnumber moderates, a rarity. They definitely outnumber liberals by better than 3-1. On top of that, even a quarter of the tiny liberal population voted for Bush. The moderates also supported Bush, by 12 points. It's not easy to get much redder than this state.

Religion

- Heavily Protestant - Small Catholic population

Both groups hated Kerry.

Demographics

- Predominantly rural - Large urban population - Significant suburban population

Nothing particularly interesting to report. All demographics liked Bush by wide margins.

Other factors

Approval numbers for Bush and the war are both sky high here, well into the mid-60s. In fact, the president polls so well, he falls only 5% shy of having a majority "strongly" approving of him.

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet