Ohio
20 votes
Bush - 2 points
The last time this state voted Democratic...
... the O.J. Simpson trial dominated the news.
Race
- Heavily white
Significant African-American population
Bush obtained 56% of the white vote. Kerry got 84% of the black
vote.
Age
Youngest voters - Kerry
Everybody else - Bush
Not an unusual pattern. Kerry won the youth vote by 14 points.
Bush won all the demographics over age 30, though his
strongest support came from seniors.
Economics
Under $50,000 - Kerry
Over $50,000 - Bush
A fairly standard economic distribution picture. Kerry heavily
dominated the lower classes, with his support slipping to a near
tie in the lower middle class. From there up it was all Bush.
Politics
- Above average partisanship
- Slight Republican tilt
- Average Democratic loyalty
- Above average Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Democratic
An important, if not particularly interesting picture. Democrats are
outnumbered by five points here. Loyalty among Democrats is
not bad at 90% but not as good as the Republicans at 94%. What
makes it close is the independent vote which trends Democratic
by 19 points.
Ideology
- Strong conservative tilt
At 15 points there's a sizable conservative lilt to the state. But the
moderates did support Kerry by 18 points. Both ideologies have
roughly equal loyalty to party numbers.
Religion
- Protestant majority
- Sizable Catholic population
These numbers should be interesting but they aren't. Catholics
and Protestants voted almost identically in the mid-50s for Bush.
Demographics
- Predominantly suburban
- Sizable urban and rural populations
Kerry took 58% of the urban vote with Bush getting 60% of the
rural vote. Both represented about a quarter of the electorate. So
the real battle was fought in the suburbs. Unfortunately, Kerry
narrowly lost here and the margin was enough. Interestingly,
Bush's rural support came primarily from outlying areas, not
small towns which split evenly. Georgia and Iowa provide further
examples of this split.

Kerry's support was primarily in the north, in the Cleveland area
especially. Southern and central areas were friendlier to Bush.
Other factors
The war and Bush both rank in the low-to-mid fifties in approval
ratings. Not as unpopular as one might expect in a state where
he only polled 51%.


The Land of the Blue
Where centrism and progressivism meet