North Carolina
15 votes
Bush - 12 points
The last time this state voted Democratic...
... the Apple computer company was founded.
Race
- Heavily white
- Sizable African-American population
About a quarter of the population is black. The voting split was
much the same as in other Southern states. Blacks picked Kerry
overwhelmingly. Whites chose Bush by margins almost as big.
Age
Youngest voters - Kerry
Everybody else - Bush
Kerry won 56% of the youth vote. But Bush scored big margins in
every other group, led by Kerry's nemesis, the 30-44
demographic.
Economics
Under $30,000 - Kerry
Above $30,000 - Bush
Just as in many other states Kerry did very well among the poor
and working class, but beginning in the lower middle class Bush
destroyed that advantage with huge margins in every group. This
pattern was particularly sharp and particularly evident in the Old
South states.
Politics
- High partisanship
- Slight Republican tilt
- Very poor Democratic loyalty
- Excellent Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Republican
Another state that looks relatively good on paper and runs like an
electoral disaster in practice. Republicans hold only a one-point
margin on Democrats here. By contrast, Democrats overcame a
seven-point deficit in New Hampshire. But in North Carolina, a
16% defection rate decimated the Democratic ranks, while 96%
of Republicans backed Bush, a rate above even the Republican
average and higher than Democratic loyalty in any Democratic
state (excluding D.C.). With that on his side Bush didn't really
need a knockout blow but the independents backed him anyway.
Ideology
- Huge conservative tilt
Forty percent of North Carolinians are conservative versus a
mere 17% who are liberal. Both have roughly the same defection
rate. Moderates are evenly split between Bush and Kerry.
Religion
- Heavily Protestant
- Small Catholic population
There are a few Catholics here but they voted almost identically
to the huge Protestant majority.
Demographics
- Predominantly rural
- Large urban population
- Sizable suburban population
Bush managed to win every demographic group. Oddly, however
his biggest win was not in the rural areas but in the suburban
fifth of the population which he won by a much larger margin.

Outside the Raleigh/Durham area Kerry fared poorly in most
places.
Other factors
Fifty-four percent of respondents favored the Iraqi invasion. An
even larger portion (57%) approve of Bush overall.


The Land of the Blue
Where centrism and progressivism meet