New York
31 votes
Kerry - 19 points
The last time this state voted Republican...
... Bobby McFerrin released 'Don't Worry, Be Happy'.
Race
- Heavily white
- Significant African-American population
- Small Latino population
- Very small Asian population
Whites in this state split almost dead even. Bush won them by a
point. After that he was finished. The black, Latino and Asian
populations voted against him by overwhelming margins of
42-81 points.
Age
All groups - Kerry
Kerry won every group here. But the devil was in the details.
Those 44 and under voted much more decisively for him than
those older, where he only won by single digits.
Economics
Above $200,000 - Bush
Everybody else - Kerry
To find large pools of Republicans you have to move pretty far up
the economic ladder here. Only the very richest voters supported
Bush. The poorest backed Kerry the strongest with a slight valley
in the mid-to-upper middle classes and another slight peak in
the $100,000-$200,000 range. Dynamic was similar to
Massachusetts.
Politics
- Average partisanship
- Large Democratic tilt
- Below average Democratic loyalty
- Below average Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Democratic
At 16 points, New York has a huge Democratic advantage.
Forty-five percent of poll respondents were Democrats, among
the highest rates in the nation. The only bad news was a slightly
subpar loyalty rate but even this is offset by a similar rate among
Republicans. The independents also voted for Kerry.
Ideology
- Slight liberal tilt
Only a 2-point tilt to liberals over conservatives but about
one-in-four conservatives defected to Kerry anyway, a rate much
higher than the liberal defection rate. The moderates also
backed Kerry by 20 points
Religion
- Predominately Catholic
- Large Protestant population
- Small Jewish population
The good news is that New York has more Catholics than
Protestants and Catholics tend to support Kerry more. The bad
news is that here they didn't. Unlike in many blue states, the
Catholics voted against Kerry by three points. But just as in a few
other Northeastern areas, it was the Protestants - though hostile
to him elsewhere in the country - who pulled him through.
Protestants backed him by eight points. When combined with
Jewish support it spelled a big win for Kerry. New Jersey,
Connecticut and New Hampshire are instructive here.
Demographics
- Majority suburban
- Large suburban population
New York may be an urban hot spot but its population is
primarily suburban. Kerry narrowly lost that vote, just as he lost it
in neighboring Pennsylvania, just as he lost it in most of the rest
of the country. But he won about three-quarters of the urban
(read New York City) vote composing about a third of the state's
population. In the absence of any real rural vote, it was more
than enough.
Other factors
Fifty-four percent do not approve of the war. Fifty-six percent do
not approve of the man who started it, either.


The Land of the Blue
Where centrism and progressivism meet