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- Large Latino population
- Small population listed as 'other'
margin as Kerry took the Latino vote, but there were more
Caucasians. The less than 10% of the population classified as
other voted for Kerry and that made it close - but not close
enough.
Everybody else - Bush
them by 11 points. The youth and 45-59 groups split with a tiny
advantage for Bush. Bush's big win came from the 30-44
demographic, a segment of the populace that often provided the
president's margin of victory. Ironically, if the youth vote that
buoyed Kerry elsewhere had done so here, he'd have won.
Instead, the elderly who hurt him nationally were his primary
supporters. Pattern reminiscent of Montana.
Upper middle class and up - Bush
bulwark for Kerry in close states, split almost even. Meanwhile,
the working class supported Kerry heavily - by 20 points. In the
lower middle class however a slight advantage swings back to
Bush. Meanwhile, the core of the middle class
($50,000-$75,000) voted Kerry by four points. Moving further up
the chain, the upper middle class ran heavily to Bush, with that
margin weakening to a near tie again around $100,000. The
richest voters swung decisively for the president. I can derive little
sense from this odd constellation of balloting.
- Significant Democratic tilt
- Very poor Democratic loyalty
- Above average Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt slightly Democratic
make up 40% of the population giving them a seven-point edge
on Republicans. This is a higher percentage of Democrats and a
better margin on Republicans than any state Kerry won west of
Pennsylvania, except Hawaii. Even Massachusetts didn't have a
high a percentage of Democrats. Further, the independents voted
for Kerry by several points. This state should be a shoe-in.
Instead, Kerry lost it by a hair. How? One word. Loyalty. Pure and
simple. Party cohesion was 10 points higher in the GOP. Three
times as many Democrats jumped ship as did Republicans.
There are no complex reasons why the Democrats lost here.
ideology numbers. Conservatives have a 14-point advantage on
liberals. Loyalty figures here are about the same for both sides
however and the moderates are definitely not Republicans. They
voted strongly for Kerry making the race a virtual dead heat.
- Large Catholic population
population strongly supported Kerry. In fact they supported him
more strongly than any other Catholic population short of the
West Coast. But Protestants, though less powerful here than in
many places were also more unified. About two-thirds voted for
Bush. It was just a bit too much for the large Catholic minority.
- Large urban population
- Significant suburban population
also took the urban areas. He even narrowly won the outlying
rural vote. Bush however retained a big win in the small towns,
which was odd since he was weaker there in many other parts
of the country. Nationally, he won them by only two points. In New
Mexico, he won them by 25. They represented about a quarter of
the population. It was all he'd need.
has a higher rating at 53%.