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Everybody else - Kerry
supported him by a lesser margin. But 53% of the 30-44 age
group found a home with the Republicans - a trend also seen in
Michigan and some other states.
$150,000-$200,000 - tied
Everybody else - Bush
supported Kerry heavily but that dramatically dried up and shifted
to slightly to Bush in the middle and upper ranks of a badly
divided middle class. It shifted back again however above
$100,000 slightly to Kerry, shifting back toward Bush again in the
highest income brackets. A confusing mix but it does display the
same economic shift in the $100,000 to $200,000 seen in some
states elsewhere, such as Colorado and Connecticut.
- Significant Republican tilt
- Excellent Democratic loyalty
- Average Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt significantly Democratic
political organization and its example is both instructive and
encouraging. Time after time, we've seen the GOP take away
states with Democratic pluralities because Democratic defectors
abandoned the party in huge numbers and independents flocked
to the Republicans. Here we see a rare example of the trend
reversing itself. In New Hampshire, Democrats overcame a
seven-point advantage by displaying a 95% loyalty rate, the
highest Democratic rate in the nation. The Republicans, at 91%
displayed fair loyalty but their opponents were more united.
Meanwhile, independents gave Kerry a 14-point boost to put him
over the top. New Hampshire is an example of how the
Democrats can take a red state and turn it blue. It is an example
of the power of a unified party. In short, it is an example of what
the Republicans usually do to the Democrats.
For an example of a less encouraging state take a look at
Montana, which like New Hampshire also gives Republicans a
seven-point edge but unlike the Granite State had an awful
defection rate. The difference between Montana (a 20-point win
for Bush) and New Hampshire (a 1-point win for Kerry) is a
difference in party unity. Period.
equal defection rates but moderates make up for the difference.
They voted Kerry by 15 points.
- Large Catholic population
Protestant 19-point advantage for Bush could be blunted
somewhat by a Kerry advantage among Catholics. Nice if there
had been one, but there wasn't. Kerry lost the Catholics by five.
New Hampshire is unique in that it is the only state in the Union
Kerry won while losing both the Catholic and the Protestant vote.
Interestingly, the state saw the heaviest Protestant support for
Bush of any Northeastern state. Similar religious dynamics
include Maine.
- Large rural population
- Significant urban population
Northeast. Kerry won the small urban population but lost the
suburbanites by eight, leaving the rural areas to decide his fate.
Most places that meant he was cooked but not in New
Hampshire, one of only six states whose rural areas voted
Democratic. The others were all in New England, except Hawaii.
Check out Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island for
references.
The approve of Iraq by 48%-45%, but they approve of the Bush
presidency by only 50%-49%.