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- Large African-American population
for Kerry by a 9-to-1 margin. However, as elsewhere in the South, the
white majority was just too well united behind Bush. In Mississippi,
this was even more pronounced. A full 85% of whites cast ballots for
Bush, making this one of the few areas where white loyalty to the
GOP rivaled black loyalty to the Democratic Party.
Everybody else - Bush
30 where he received an easy margin over Bush. But above 30, the
tide turned decisively toward the president. Above 45, it became a
near landslide. A very sharp contrast in age.
Above $30,000 - Bush
decisive wins among the poor and working class. But the pendulum
swings strongly against him in the lower middle class - by 20 points.
Above $50,000, it becomes a washout. A similar pattern is seen in
other states but it is much stronger in the South generally and in
Mississippi in particular.
- Significant Republican tilt
- Poor Democratic loyalty
- Above average Republican loyalty
- Independents tilt heavily Republican
population identifies as Democrats than in liberal Vermont. Further, at
38%, Mississippi's Democratic contingent falls only a point short of
other Democratic strongholds like California, Illinois and even
Massachusetts. The difference? One is that Mississippi has much
higher partisanship. Eighty-five percent of the populace identifies with
a party. That means more Republicans, fewer independents and
hence fewer "swing" votes. In fact, despite, Mississippi's high
Democratic numbers, Republicans at 47% still outnumber them by
nine points. Another issue is loyalty. It was a full nine-points higher on
the Republican side. A third factor is that the swing voters don't swing.
Independents voted more than 2-1 for Bush. There are a lot of
unregistered Republicans here.
among the few states in the union where conservatives outnumber
moderates as well. Making matters worse, the few liberals defect at a
higher rate to cross party lines than do conservatives. The moderates,
though a diminished force, are actually fairly evenly split. But even they
give Bush a slight advantage.
- Significant Catholic population
got no relief among the tenth of Mississippians who are Catholic
either. They were even worse. Bush got an astounding four-fifths of
them. Frequently, Southern Catholics seem more disposed to the
GOP than Protestants, not something seen as much elsewhere.
- Significant suburban population
Not that it made a difference anyway. Predictably, the huge rural
demographic was more hostile to Kerry than the suburbs but neither
liked him.
Oddly, Kerry enjoyed some real support in the many blue counties
nearer the Mississippi River. But heading east, the state quickly turns
blood red.
amount love Bush.