Minnesota
			10 votes
			Kerry - 3 points
			The last time this state voted Republican...
			... M*A*S*H premiered on CBS.
			Race
			- Overwhelmingly white
			Over nine-tenths of the population is Caucasian. Kerry won them by one point, a virtual dead heat.
			Age
			Seniors - Bush Everybody else - Kerry
			Generally, the older you were the more Republican. Kerry had decent support among twentysomethings but past age thirty the race became a virtual dead heat with very narrow margins.
			Economics
			Under $75,000, and $150,000-$200,000 - Kerry Everybody else - Bush
			A standard pattern of greater GOP sympathies the higher one gets up the scale - excepting two things. One is that the break seems to divide a bit higher than usual in this Democratic-leaning state. The switch to the GOP seems to occur around the upper middle rather than the lower middle classes. Also an isolated stronghold of liberalism can be seen in one of the upper income brackets. A similar phenomenon was seen in Colorado and Connecticut and a few other places.
			Politics
			- Average partisanship - Slight Democratic tilt - Average Democratic loyalty - Above average Republican loyalty - Independents tilt significantly Democratic
			Democrats have only a negligible three-point advantage here. And Republicans even that out further by being a bit more loyal than their Democratic counterparts (94% vs. 92%). The margin of victory? Independents. They voted Democratic by 13 points.
			Ideology
			- Significant conservative tilt
			A seven point conservative tilt becomes less pronounced by a combination of greater liberal party loyalty and the independent vote which favors the Democrats.
			Religion
			- Protestant majority - Large Catholic population
			As elsewhere, the Protestant majority opposed Kerry but as in many places that he won, that majority was less powerful and less unified than in other areas. Bush won about 56% of them. As in Michigan, the more liberal Catholics split about even. (Kerry got them by a point.) And as in Michigan, the blunting of Protestant support, which was evident in every Upper Midwest state except Wisconsin, and the negation of the Catholic voted allowed non-Christians to boost Kerry over the top.
			Demographics
			- Predominantly suburban - Large urban population - Significant rural population
			Again, similar results to Michigan, except with a bit larger urban population proportion. Kerry's large margin came from the cities, with the suburbs and rural areas bringing single-digit wins to Bush. One of the keys to Kerry's Upper Midwest wins seems to be that rural margins here favored Bush - but not by nearly as much as elsewhere. Though not as pronounced as in Iowa, the state does get a bit redder as one heads west.
			Other factors
			Opposition to Bush - and especially the war is a little bit stronger here than in Michigan with slim majorities opposing both.

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet