Michigan
			17 votes
			Kerry - 3 points
			The last time this state voted Democratic...
			... Dan Quayle jokes were just becoming popular.
			Race
			- Overwhelmingly white - Significant African-American population
			Bush won the white vote here by 10 points. But the minority vote proved decisive in a narrow victory.
			Age
			30-44 - Bush Everybody else - Kerry
			Kerry won the youth vote by 12 points and all other groups by single digits except the 30-44 group. Bush captured a 10 point win here. Similar dynamic in New Hampshire.
			Economics
			Under $50,000 - Kerry Over $50,000 - Bush
			Very simple. A standard pattern of the poorer you are, the more pro-Kerry, the richer, the more pro-Bush. There are slight deviations in the particulars but essentially that's the story.
			Politics
			- Average partisanship - Significant Democratic tilt - Above average Democratic loyalty - Above average Republican loyalty - Independents tilt slightly Democratic
			Both parties are pretty loyal here and the Democrats' 93% rate really helped them by holding together the five-point advantage over a well-unified Republican minority (94% loyalty). The independent tilt was virtually non-existent, benefiting the Democrats by only two points. This was a numbers game. Both sides held together well but the Democrats just had a few more votes. It shows what can happen when they stay unified.
			Ideology
			- Sizable conservative tilt
			Cons outnumber libs by 12 points. But libs have a much higher loyalty rate and the moderates backed Kerry.
			Religion
			- Protestant majority - Large Catholic population
			Although Kerry technically won the Catholic vote it was only by a point and hence statistically useless. Unsurprisingly, Protestants voted for Bush but only by nine points, a margin that could be surmounted by non-Christian voting blocs.
			Demographics
			- Predominantly suburban - Large rural population - Significant urban population
			The suburbs and rural areas went for Bush but interestingly not by huge margins. In fact, Kerry won the small town vote, just as he did in Georgia and Iowa. The weakness of these single-digit wins left the door open for Kerry's urban voters. Although less than a quarter of the population, their heavily lopsided margin was the key to the state. The story is told by the regional totals. The bulk of Kerry's strength came from Wayne County, the Detroit area, where he more than doubled Bush's vote.
			Other factors
			Sharp division on the war and Bush's job approval are evident. Michigan residents approve of the war by two points and Bush by one. Tight, but not enough to carry the state for the GOP.

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet