Iowa

7 votes

Bush - 1 point

The last time this state voted Democratic....

... Cuban Elian Gonzalez was at the center of a custody battle.

Race

- Overwhelmingly white

Nothing to report here.

Age

Youngest and oldest voters - Kerry Middle ranks - Bush

No massive differences here but Bush's narrow win came from voters aged 30-59. Kerry scored single digit victories among twentysomethings and seniors. Not as unusual a pattern as you might think. Michigan and New Hampshire had similar though not precisely the same dynamics. New Jersey might be more instructive.

Economics

Poor through lower middle class - Kerry Everybody above $50,000 - Bush

A familiar distribution across the lower classes with Kerry winning big at the bottom with his lead slowly dissolving through the lower middle class. At about $50,000 Bush takes over, although his support is less strong in the upper middle class. The richest voters overwhelmingly support W.

Politics

- Slightly below average partisanship - Slight Republican tilt - Good Democratic loyalty - Good Republican loyalty - Independents tilt slightly Democratic

In a state this close, its hard to identify any one factor that pushed it one way or the other. Certainly that's true with the party paradigm. Republicans hold the state by two points. But that's an easily beatable margin. Especially since the loyalty numbers are pretty decent for both parties. In the end it was the independents who decided things. Kerry won them by eight points but he needed a bigger victory to overcome that small but decisive GOP numerical edge. A few more loyal Democrats. A few more defecting Republicans. A slightly bigger win among independents. Almost anything would have done it.

Ideology

- Strong conservative tilt

By a margin of 36-19, conservatives outnumber liberals. The good news? Liberals are a bit loyaler to their side of the fence and the moderates voted for Kerry by a significant 19 points. It was nearly enough.

Religion

- Heavily Protestant - Sizable Catholic population

The Protestant majority was vaguely supportive of Bush. The Catholic minority was vaguely supportive of Kerry, as elsewhere in the Upper Midwest, but neither seemed to provide a decisive margin.

Demographics

- Majority rural - Large urban population - Significant suburban population

Though not an overwhelming win (seven points), Bush's victory in rural areas appears the decisive factor in this heavily farmed state. And that support truly came from farms. Kerry actually won the small town vote in Iowa, just as in Michigan, and Georgia. Meanwhile, the urban voted tilted slightly for Kerry and the suburbs slightly for Bush. Regionally, the candidates' bases were directional in nature. Areas in eastern Iowa voted more like their liberal neighbors across the Mississippi in Illinois. Those in western Iowa voted more like their conservative neighbors across the Missouri in Nebraska.

Other factors

Iowans approve of the war in Iraq by 8 points and give Bush a similar approval rating.

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet