Florida

27 votes

Bush - 5 points

The last time this state voted Democratic....

... the FBI arrested the Unibomber.

Race

- Heavily white - Significant Latino population - Significant African-American population

Whites voted for Bush by 15 points and the president padded his lead with support from Latinos who he won by 12 points. Unlike most other areas of the nation, Florida Latinos lean Republican. Those margins were enough to swamp the African-American vote in the state even though it supported Kerry by 73 points.

Age

Youngest voters - Kerry Everybody else - Bush

Not an uncommon pattern. Kerry lead with the youth but Bush took the other groups, though none by massive margins. Despite the controversy over Social Security, Bush won the seniors - though by a smaller margin - 5 points.

Economics

Under $50,000 - Kerry Over $50,000 - Bush

A familiar pattern. The lower classes supported Kerry comfortably but his margin shrivels in the lower middle class and reverses to Bush above that.

Politics

- Above average partisanship - Slight Republican tilt - Poor Democratic loyalty - Good Republican loyalty - Independents tilt significantly Democratic

An interesting dynamic makes this state competitive. Republicans enjoy a four-point advantage but independents cancel that by voting for Kerry by 16 points. The problem? Defections. Fourteen percent of Democrats did not support Kerry. Only 7% of Republicans repaid the favor. In some ways, this state is not as hopeful as it might appear. The independents are already voting Democratic. Without defections from the GOP or a more solid Democratic base, the Republican's small numerical advantage will stand.

Ideology

- Sizable conservative tilt

Conservatives outnumber liberals here by 14 points and conservatives were a little more reliable at voting for Bush than liberals were at supporting Kerry. The good news is that moderates supported Kerry by 13 points. The bad news is it wasn't enough.

Religion

- Majority Protestant - Large Catholic population - Small Jewish population

Jews backed Kerry 4-1 in Florida - but they represent only a twentieth of the population. Kerry needed some Catholic or Protestant support. He got neither. Both voted against him by double digit margins.

Demographics

- Mostly suburban population - Sizable urban population - Significant rural population

Sixty-one percent of Florida is suburban but oddly this group played little role in the election. The suburbs split dead even. So it was up to the state's larger urban population and its smaller rural electorate. That sounds great for Kerry except that Florida is one of the few states in which the urban and rural areas agree and what they agreed on was George W. Bush. Kerry's usual urban support was absent in Florida and he lost in those areas by 11 points. The draw in the suburbs, normally good news for a Democrat, was Kerry's death knell. Kerry did reasonably well in the Miami area but lost just about everywhere else, especially in north and central parts of the state.

Other factors

A majority approve of the war. More importantly, a majority approve of Bush.

The Land of the Blue

Where centrism and progressivism meet