 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
| |
 |
who needs bad news?
“In a (perhaps) historic shift, more Americans now consider
themselves Democrats than Republicans, the Gallup
Organization revealed today,” intoned Editor & Publisher on their
website.
Great, break out the party favors! Let’s celebrate! Dance the
night away! 2006 is in the bag! Historic! Sensational! Fantastic!
Send Howard Dean out for champagne and condoms! Gallup has
indeed discovered an advantage of Democrats over Republicans
in their polling. So how big a margin have we borne by the fruit of
our labors? What huge gap have we blasted with our rhetorical
brilliance? What yawning statistical chasm hath our rebellious
party wrought against the dark Republican Forces of Perdition?
One point.
Hmmm… guess these historic shifts are subtler than they used to
be. Like fish that got away, they seem to grow in the telling.
As it turns out we are beating them 33%-32%. It may not be a
stampede over party lines, but this is a real improvement over
late 2004 polls that showed the Dems down by two points. So that’
s good right? So how much ground have the Dems gained
overall? How much more of the American public have we claimed
since Kerry’s disastrous defeat? In real numbers, how many more
hearts and minds have been won to the party’s ever-swelling
ranks?
Negative one point.
Forget the champaign. Try bourbon, straight please. Make it a
double.
That’s right. In passing the Republicans, we’ve lost ground, not
gained. Thirty-three percent is a drop in party identification from
2004 when the Democrats got 34%. In fact, it is only the relative
motion of the self-destructing Republican Party that is pushing us
forward. Indeed, kudos are due for the Democratic surge over the
GOP. Unfortunately, they are due to… well …. to the GOP.
The Republicans have just dropped more than we have, losing
four points since ‘04. The confusion here is not how the
Democrats have taken the lead but how they have not taken a
commanding lead. In fact, both parties are in reverse. The GOP
simply has the gas pedal pinned to the floor and we are just
backing gently out of the driveway.
The fine print on this “historic shift” means one thing and one
thing only. America is running away from the GOP - but they are
not running towards the Democrats. No real shift is evident here
at all, just a brief alienation - one that will be all too fleeting the
moment the Republicans knock off the comedy routine, stop
getting indicted every week and begin acting like something
resembling a major American political party again. Indeed,
despite the corruption, the incompetence, the deficits, the decay,
the war, and the myriad other opportunities that this
administration has given them, the Democrats have failed utterly
to gain in the polls. They have failed to articulate a coherent,
positive message. They have failed to rope in the thousands of
disillusioned voters that are roaming desperately in search of new
ideological stomping grounds. In short, they have failed to let
people know why they should be Democrats.
Negativism is not the answer. Bush’s poll ratings are limboing well
into the 30s right now. People don’t need Democrats to tell them
why not to be Republicans. Republicans are already doing a fine
job of that all on their own. What they do need is a reason to be
Democrats. An agenda. A plan. A philosophy. A big tent pitched
around a wider base. These are things that so far the Democratic
Party has been unable to provide. If they discover that need and
address it there really will be a historic shift, maybe one that will
last for decades. If they do not, the 2006 elections will come down
to the strength of a failed Republican message versus the
strength of a nonexistent Democratic one. Such are not the
building blocks of dynasties. Stale anti-Bush platitudes and
relentless doom and gloom are not going to cut it. Unfortunately,
unless Chairman Dean and Company find something more to
offer from the party’s brain trust, 2006 will not be a revolution but
a hiccup on the road to a new era in which the GOP will redefine
itself in the sunset years of the Bush administration.
If history is any guide, the Republicans are fully capable of
building that message, a positive, forward-looking, post-W vision
to appeal to an electorate that craves something appealing. The
question is, are we capable of doing more than just opposing it?
Not so far.
and tell me
what you
think
blog
to comment
on this article
and view
others